Will the S&P 500 trigger a Level-1 circuit breaker (-7%) citing hantavirus by July 1?
The S&P 500 tripped circuit breakers four times in March 2020 (9, 12, 16, 18) — the first since 1997. Tracks a single-day -7% triggered halt with hantavirus credibly cited as the catalyst.
Resolves YES if a Level-1 (or higher) market-wide circuit breaker is triggered on the NYSE before 2026-07-01 and at least two of {Reuters, Bloomberg, FT, WSJ} attribute the move primarily to hantavirus.
On settlement the oracle attaches a signed snapshot of each source URL plus a SHA-256 hash of the page content captured at resolution time. Disputes have a 7-day arbitration window.
cited: NYSE/CBOE halt records + Reuters market wraps
Resolution sources · 3
Wire-grade source; resolves the NYT/major-media markets.
Cheap sentiment + earliest-mover for translated regional press. Run a dedup hash on titles + canonical URL.
Global news ingestion — geocoded, multilingual. Best signal for non-English regional outbreaks.
ETL workers poll these feeds and merge into the resolution oracle.full registry