Live · WHO DON #599 · MV Hondius cluster

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PredictHanta is an information market on the 2026 hantavirus situation. Resolve questions about WHO declarations, geographic spread, fatality counts and vaccine progress — settled against verifiable WHO, ECDC and PAHO sources.

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09 May 2026 14:06·hantamap.online·monitoring
Tracker tick: case-count delta 0 over last 5 min. Static JSON feed re-validated against WHO DON #599 baseline.
09 May 2026 12:06·WHO · Geneva·verified
DON #599 update: global risk remains LOW. 14 confirmed Andes virus cases linked to MV Hondius; no IHR Emergency Committee convened.
09 May 2026 07:06·Switzerland · Zürich·verified
FOPH confirms 1 imported Andes virus case (Zürich resident, MV Hondius passenger). PCR + serology positive at reference lab Spiez.

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Active markets · 39

All Spread Policy Science Geography Media Fatality Economy

Policycloses 235d 21h

Will the WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by Dec 31, 2026?

Geographycloses 36d 21h

Will WHO formally acknowledge sustained human-to-human Andes transmission in 2026?

Sciencecloses 235d 21h

Will an Andes/HPS vaccine candidate enter Phase 2 trials in 2026?

Will any G20 country impose hantavirus-specific cruise restrictions by July 1?

Will the NY Times run a hantavirus story above the fold by June 1?

Will WHO-confirmed Andes/HPS cases linked to 2026 cluster exceed 100 by Aug 1?

Geographycloses 83d 21h

Will Russia confirm an imported Andes case by August 1?

Will any EU country close schools regionally citing hantavirus by June 15?

Will a second cruise ship be linked to a hantavirus cluster by Aug 1?

Policycloses 114d 21h

Will the WHO Director-General publicly use the word 'pandemic' for hantavirus by Sep 1?

Sciencecloses 235d 21h

Will WHO assign a Greek-letter (or successor scheme) variant name to a hantavirus lineage in 2026?

Will any sitting head of state or government test positive for hantavirus in 2026?

Will a celebrity with >10M followers publicly confirm hantavirus infection by Aug 1?

Will a major sports league suspend ≥1 game citing hantavirus by Aug 1?

Policycloses 114d 21h

Will any G20 country impose a nationwide stay-at-home order citing hantavirus by Sep 1?

Will any country close its borders to non-citizens citing hantavirus by July 1?

Sciencecloses 235d 21h

Will any regulator grant emergency authorization to a hantavirus vaccine in 2026?

Will any G7 country announce an Operation Warp Speed–style hantavirus countermeasures program by Aug 1?

Sciencecloses 235d 21h

Will a 'lab-origin' hypothesis appear in any G7 intelligence or government statement on hantavirus by Dec 31?

Economycloses 52d 21h

Will Carnival, Royal Caribbean or NCL drop ≥30% from May 8 close by July 1?

Will WHO or ECDC formally cite a third-party hantavirus dashboard by Aug 1?

Will WHO convene an IHR Emergency Committee on hantavirus by July 1?

Will any city >1M residents be placed under stay-at-home order citing hantavirus by Aug 1?

Will a major international sporting/cultural event (≥50k attendees) be postponed citing hantavirus by Aug 1?

Will a top-20 music festival cancel its 2026 edition citing hantavirus by July 1?

Policycloses 114d 21h

Will any G7 country impose a public-space mask mandate citing hantavirus by Sep 1?

Will any government order culling of >100k animals citing hantavirus by Aug 1?

Economycloses 52d 21h

Will the S&P 500 trigger a Level-1 circuit breaker (-7%) citing hantavirus by July 1?

Policycloses 235d 21h

Will any G7 country suspend funding to or notify withdrawal from WHO over hantavirus response in 2026?

Will a top-25 box-office 2026 release be delayed citing hantavirus by July 1?

Sciencecloses 235d 21h

Will a peer-reviewed paper confirm a hantavirus reinfection case in 2026?

Sciencecloses 235d 21h

Will WHO, NIH, or NICE formally recognize a 'post-hantavirus' chronic syndrome by Dec 31?

Will any anti-restriction protest >10,000 people occur citing hantavirus measures by Sep 1?

Will any government open a temporary/field hospital for hantavirus by Aug 1?

Economycloses 52d 21h

Will any country impose PPE/medical-supply export restrictions citing hantavirus by July 1?

Economycloses 235d 21h

Will any G7 country announce direct cash transfers ≥$500/person citing hantavirus in 2026?

What is hantavirus?

Rodent-borne RNA virus, two clinical syndromes

HFRS in Eurasia (CFR <1–15%); HPS in the Americas (CFR 30–60%). Andes virus is the only orthohantavirus with documented person-to-person spread.

Why a market?

Crowdsourced probability beats news cycles

When the WHO publishes a DON, the market price has often moved hours earlier. We aggregate that signal so policymakers, hedgers and curious humans can read it.

How resolution works

On-chain oracle, off-chain proof

Each market cites a primary public source (WHO DON, ECDC TESSy, MMWR, ClinicalTrials.gov). Disputes go to a 7-day arbitration window before settlement.

Trade the next vector.Price the outbreak in real time.

Active markets · 39

Will the WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by Dec 31, 2026?

Will a second EU country confirm a domestic Andes virus case by June 15, 2026?

Will MV Hondius–linked deaths exceed 10 by July 1, 2026?

Will the US CDC report a first imported Andes virus case by Sep 1, 2026?

Will WHO formally acknowledge sustained human-to-human Andes transmission in 2026?

Will an Andes/HPS vaccine candidate enter Phase 2 trials in 2026?

Will any G20 country impose hantavirus-specific cruise restrictions by July 1?

Will the NY Times run a hantavirus story above the fold by June 1?

Will WHO-confirmed Andes/HPS cases linked to 2026 cluster exceed 100 by Aug 1?

Will Russia confirm an imported Andes case by August 1?

Will any EU country close schools regionally citing hantavirus by June 15?

Will a second cruise ship be linked to a hantavirus cluster by Aug 1?

Will the WHO Director-General publicly use the word 'pandemic' for hantavirus by Sep 1?

Will WHO assign a Greek-letter (or successor scheme) variant name to a hantavirus lineage in 2026?

Will any sitting head of state or government test positive for hantavirus in 2026?

Will a celebrity with >10M followers publicly confirm hantavirus infection by Aug 1?

Will a major sports league suspend ≥1 game citing hantavirus by Aug 1?

Will any G20 country impose a nationwide stay-at-home order citing hantavirus by Sep 1?

Will any country close its borders to non-citizens citing hantavirus by July 1?

Will any regulator grant emergency authorization to a hantavirus vaccine in 2026?

Will any G7 country announce an Operation Warp Speed–style hantavirus countermeasures program by Aug 1?

Will a 'lab-origin' hypothesis appear in any G7 intelligence or government statement on hantavirus by Dec 31?

Will Carnival, Royal Caribbean or NCL drop ≥30% from May 8 close by July 1?

Will WHO or ECDC formally cite a third-party hantavirus dashboard by Aug 1?

Will WHO convene an IHR Emergency Committee on hantavirus by July 1?

Will any city >1M residents be placed under stay-at-home order citing hantavirus by Aug 1?

Will a major international sporting/cultural event (≥50k attendees) be postponed citing hantavirus by Aug 1?

Will a top-20 music festival cancel its 2026 edition citing hantavirus by July 1?

Will any G7 country impose a public-space mask mandate citing hantavirus by Sep 1?

Will any government order culling of >100k animals citing hantavirus by Aug 1?

Will the S&P 500 trigger a Level-1 circuit breaker (-7%) citing hantavirus by July 1?

Will any G7 country suspend funding to or notify withdrawal from WHO over hantavirus response in 2026?

Will a top-25 box-office 2026 release be delayed citing hantavirus by July 1?

Will a peer-reviewed paper confirm a hantavirus reinfection case in 2026?

Will WHO, NIH, or NICE formally recognize a 'post-hantavirus' chronic syndrome by Dec 31?

Will any anti-restriction protest >10,000 people occur citing hantavirus measures by Sep 1?

Will any government open a temporary/field hospital for hantavirus by Aug 1?

Will any country impose PPE/medical-supply export restrictions citing hantavirus by July 1?

Will any G7 country announce direct cash transfers ≥$500/person citing hantavirus in 2026?

Rodent-borne RNA virus, two clinical syndromes

Crowdsourced probability beats news cycles

On-chain oracle, off-chain proof

Trade the next vector.
Price the outbreak in real time.